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26.05.2025 01:05 PM
Trump changes his rhetoric, USD loses ground

The world is changing faster than the markets can blink. The dollar is rapidly losing ground amid a pause in the US-EU trade war. Nvidia is being forced to cut AI prices for China under sanction pressure. Visa and Mastercard face multi-billion euro fines in Europe. Meanwhile, Oracle plans to invest $40 billion in chips to avoid falling behind in the new AI race. These four major stories share one underlying theme, a global shakeup of the rules, and traders can profit from it.

US drops in response to US-EU trade war pause

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The dollar once again weakened after the US president unexpectedly backed off threats against the European Union, postponing the planned 50% tariffs. What exactly happened and why the markets reacted so sharply is explored in this article with concrete takeaways for traders seeking to capitalize on White House unpredictability.

At the end of last week, US President Donald Trump announced he would impose 50% tariffs on EU imports starting June 1, citing frustration with the slow pace of negotiations. The world held its breath once again, and traders braced for turbulence.

But just two days later, everything shifted. Trump announced an extension of the negotiation deadline to July 9, following a request from European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen.

Apparently, their Sunday conversation was pleasant as Trump put it, while von der Leyen wrote on X that Europe was ready to move swiftly and decisively. Hopes for de-escalation instantly lifted the markets.

The US dollar immediately found itself on the back foot. On Monday morning, the DXY index fell by 0.4%, nearing its lowest point since July 2023. With tariff threats postponed, trade-sensitive currencies surged: the Australian dollar climbed to 65.37 US cents, the New Zealand dollar to 60.32 cents, a high since November, and the euro jumped 0.5% to 1.1418, its highest level since April.

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According to ANZ analyst Felix Ryan, the delay in tariff implementation revived market sentiment and boosted currencies that are directly tied to global demand.

However, a deeper look reveals that the dollar's decline is not merely the result of a temporary easing in tariff rhetoric. The issue runs deeper, rooted in the very essence of Trump's economic policy.

In 2025, the US Dollar Index has already lost more than 7%, and judging by current momentum, it could erase all of last year's gains, the biggest since 2015.

Investors are increasingly concerned not just about tariffs but also about the state of US public finances. Trump's proposal to extend tax cuts from his first term raises legitimate questions about the long-term fiscal balance.

Against this backdrop, it is no surprise that the dollar is weakening against other major currencies, particularly the yen. Ryan notes that despite the heavy selling pressure already in place, the market is firmly bearish on the dollar. Any additional concerns, even something as small as a postponed tariff, only deepen the capital outflows.

Interestingly, even the slightest shift in Trump's tone can undercut the dollar's standing. This highlights growing mistrust in the consistency of US policy and suggests that international partners, including the EU, no longer see Washington as an unshakable leader. Its economic direction has simply become too erratic.

Europe, once seen as dependent on the US for defense and trade matters, is increasingly setting its own terms, even if those are voiced through polite weekend phone calls.

As a result, the US dollar has become a hostage to its own threats. Each time the White House launches a rhetorical offensive only to backtrack, investors dump the dollar in favor of more stable assets.

Markets have come to a realization that the US course is not a well-thought-out strategy but a series of improvised responses. Any hint of a pause in escalation is taken as a reason to pull away from the US dollar.

For traders, this environment opens up tangible opportunities. First, it is worth paying attention to the currencies of countries that stand to benefit from a slowdown in the trade war, namely, the Australian and New Zealand dollars, as well as the euro.

Second, it makes sense to consider short positions on the US dollar in pairs with the yen, particularly if the White House's rhetoric starts to waver again.

And finally, never forget that instability is a speculator's best friend. Traders can capitalize on dollar weakness by buying competing currencies or playing the volatility of indices sensitive to tariff-related news.

Nvidia makes AI cheaper for China: geopolitics, marketing, and a touch of desperation

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When the Chinese AI market was cut off from cutting-edge American technologies and mounting regulatory pressure began taking a toll on revenue, US manufacturers were left with a single option — inventing a "trimmed-down" version of innovation. That is exactly what Nvidia did, unveiling a special version of its Blackwell architecture chip tailored to comply with strict export controls and priced more affordably.

In this article, we will break down why the tech giant opted for compromises in both specs and production costs, what it means for competition and the broader market, and, most importantly, how traders can maximize their gains from the situation.

Since the imposition of strict US export restrictions, China's data center market has become a real test for Nvidia. The company has already seen its market share there slashed in half, from 95% to 50%.

The H20 chip, tailored specifically to meet Chinese regulatory requirements, was officially banned from export in April. Along with it, approximately $5.5 billion in inventory and an estimated $15 billion in potential revenue were effectively thrown into the trash.

Nvidia CEO Jensen Huang has suggested that without regulatory approval for the company's new chip architecture from US authorities, access to the Chinese market, valued at $50 billion, remains effectively closed to them.

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Faced with strict regulatory constraints, Nvidia was forced to compromise. Just recently, the company announced the launch of a new chip designed specifically for the Chinese market. This model will be priced between $6,500 and $8,000, significantly cheaper than the previous H20 chip, which was priced between $10,000 and $12,000.

The new chip is set to debut in June and represents a budget-oriented reimagining of the flagship product. It ditches TSMC's expensive CoWoS packaging and foregoes the high-speed HBM memory. Instead, it features a more modest but compliant configuration with conventional GDDR7 memory. Its bandwidth ranges between 1.7 and 1.8 TB/s, precisely at the upper edge of the export limit set by US restrictions, compared to the H20's 4 TB/s.

This is more than just a simplified chip. It is a textbook example of compromise between engineering rationale, political constraints, and a desperate effort to limit financial damage.

All of this unfolds against a backdrop of equally painful problems. Back in October 2024, Nvidia admitted to a significant engineering flaw in the Blackwell architecture that led to delivery delays and the loss of major clients, including industry giants like Amazon, Google, and Microsoft.

The root cause was a design flaw in the interconnects between two chiplets, which drastically reduced the yield of functional dies. Nvidia took full responsibility for the issue, without attempting to shift the blame to TSMC or any other partner.

By May 2025, Nvidia stated that it had resolved the production issue and restored its manufacturing lines to normal operations, although the lost time and strained client relations were not so easily recovered.

Still, even the corrected version of Blackwell is not universally accessible. The US continues to impose a layered system of export controls, classifying countries distinctly as either "trusted partners" or "suspect actors." Unsurprisingly, China remains firmly in the latter group.

This marks Nvidia's third attempt to adapt its chips to the Chinese regulatory environment, with each iteration demanding deeper compromises — reduced performance, stripped-down features, and innovation increasingly constrained by policy rather than technology. While Nvidia navigates these political and technical crosswinds, rivals like Huawei, with its Ascend 910B, are steadily advancing and fortifying their market position.

Analyst Nori Chiou estimates that Chinese chips may catch up with Nvidia's scaled-down models within two years at most.

Nevertheless, even in their weakened form, Nvidia chips retain one critical advantage that competitors cannot easily replicate—the CUDA ecosystem. More than just a technology, CUDA has become a de facto industry standard. Transitioning away from it would require rewriting applications, changing development environments, and disrupting well-established workflows — steps that are too costly, complex, and risky for many clients. That is why, despite their limitations, Nvidia's compromised chips continue to find demand.

Therefore, Nvidia has been forced to simplify its flagship chip to maintain a presence in the Chinese market, despite tightening US export restrictions. The company is sacrificing margin and market share, but it is holding its ground. This is not a growth strategy, it is one of survival. As a result, Nvidia will likely aim to sell as many of these "stripped-down" Blackwell chips as possible before the next round of restrictions, or before viable Chinese alternatives emerge.

What does this mean for traders? Above all, heightened volatility around Nvidia stock. Every move the company makes toward China will carry regulatory risks, but it also opens the door for a rebound if the new product line proves successful.

Traders should monitor launch timelines (June and September), reactions in the Chinese market, and shipment reports closely. In the short term, Nvidia shares may face pressure due to margin compression and strategic uncertainty, but over a 6-12 month horizon, the stock remains attractive, especially if US rhetoric begins to soften.

For short-term strategies, trading on Nvidia's price swings near key chip launch dates and earnings reports could be compelling. For long-term positioning, a cautiously optimistic view is warranted, not just on the chips themselves, but on the broader AI ecosystem Nvidia has spent years building.

Traders ready to seize these market opportunities should act now. Open a trading account with InstaForex and install our mobile app for full access to a comprehensive range of tools for trading Nvidia shares.

Monopoly under scrutiny: EU launches sweeping probe into Visa and Mastercard

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When it comes to Europe's payment infrastructure, all roads inevitably lead to two undisputed titans, Visa and Mastercard. These companies control nearly all non-cash transactions in the euro area, not merely participating in the market but effectively setting its rules: imposing tariffs, charging mandatory access fees to their networks, and dictating the terms of play. However, Brussels appears to be running out of patience. The European Commission has launched a formal inquiry to determine whether the fees imposed by these giants truly reflect their contributions to the industry or conceal signs of monopolistic behavior. What's behind the investigation, and how can traders capitalize on it? Our report breaks it down.

Last week, the Commission's antitrust division distributed detailed questionnaires to fintech firms and payment platform providers. The questions were highly specific: How free are retailers to choose payment infrastructure? Are they obligated to work with Visa and Mastercard? Are the fees justified? And how transparent are client notifications about new charges?

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The Commission also wants to know which services became mandatory after 2017 and how the companies have responded to complaints over the past seven years.

If regulators find evidence of abuse of market dominance, it could lead to a formal investigation and fines of up to 10% of annual revenue.

In other words, Visa and Mastercard are once again in the regulatory spotlight. This marks the second wave of scrutiny. Just a month ago, the European Commission sent similar inquiries to major retail chains. The catalyst was a wave of complaints last autumn, with businesses expressing frustration over rising fees and a lack of viable alternatives.

Mastercard was quick to assert that it offers secure and flexible solutions, while Visa highlighted its systems' fraud protection and resilience.

However, Brussels appears determined. Sources say the core focus of the inquiry is to assess how mandatory participation in these networks has become, and how significantly their fees have increased in recent years.

The broader implication is a legal push to establish that the market is effectively served by only two platforms, without which businesses simply cannot function. This, in turn, could justify claims of monopoly.

Adding weight to the story is the position of European Central Bank President Christine Lagarde, who has repeatedly called for reducing Europe's dependence on foreign payment systems. Even if Visa, Mastercard, PayPal, and Alipay comply with EU standards, she argues that the bloc should have its own alternative, "just in case." That case, it seems, is fast approaching.

This is about Europe's vulnerability, its digital sovereignty, and the broader battle against a tech imbalance favoring the United States. In this sense, the issue of excessive fees is only the first step.

What could follow are regulatory restrictions, a reassessment of market access terms, and possibly even support for European competitors. Such moves have the potential to reshape the payments industry landscape in the region and, by extension, impact the share prices of the companies involved.

For traders, this situation opens up broad opportunities. In the short term, volatility in Visa and Mastercard stock can be traded around news related to the investigation, especially near key milestones like June 2, the deadline for submitting responses to the Commission's questionnaires.

Over the longer term, attention should be paid to how the EU develops its own payment infrastructure and which companies might emerge with backing as alternatives to the American giants.

Oracle's $40 billion Nvidia deal could reshape AI market

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In an era where AI computing power is the new oil reserve, Oracle is going big, investing a staggering $40 billion to purchase 400,000 Nvidia GB200 chips, the most advanced processors currently available for artificial intelligence workloads. In this report, we break down how the company plans to leverage this massive resource and what trading opportunities this record-setting deal creates for market participants.

Oracle has officially announced plans to acquire 400,000 of Nvidia's GB200 superchips, in a transaction valued at around $40 billion, one of the largest semiconductor deals in history.

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These processors will serve as the core of the first data center in the Stargate project, located in Abilene, Texas. The facility is designed to become a flagship AI hub with a computing capacity of 1.2 gigawatts, comparable to the energy consumption of one million residential homes.

More importantly, the deal is set to shift the balance of power in the global race for dominance in cloud infrastructure and artificial intelligence, potentially redistributing not just data flows but also global capital flows.

The Stargate project was introduced in January 2025 by Donald Trump as a large-scale public-private partnership aiming for $500 billion in investments.

The goal is to build a nationwide network of next-generation data centers dedicated exclusively to AI. The first node, on an 875-acre site, roughly the size of Central Park in New York City, has already exceeded initial expectations. Instead of two buildings, eight are now under construction.

All facilities will be filled with Nvidia's most advanced chips, which Oracle won't use directly but will lease to OpenAI, offering a viable alternative to Microsoft's Azure, where OpenAI is already facing capacity constraints.

The technical side of the project is no less striking. The Nvidia GB200 is a hybrid of two Blackwell B200 GPUs fused with a 72-core Grace CPU, purpose-built for heavy AI workloads including language model training, big data processing, and generative algorithms.

These chips represent the pinnacle of computing architecture in 2025, and their large-scale deployment is expected to raise the performance bar for the entire industry. Deliveries will begin this summer, with the facility slated to reach full operational capacity by mid-2026.

Alongside Oracle and OpenAI, the consortium includes SoftBank, Abu Dhabi-based MGX, Arm, Microsoft, and of course Nvidia itself, not just as a supplier but as a core architect of the entire infrastructure.

The financial architecture is equally impressive: confirmed investments have already topped $15 billion. JPMorgan is providing $9.6 billion in financing, while Crusoe Energy Systems and Blue Owl Capital have jointly invested another $5 billion. An additional $11.6 billion in funding has enabled a dramatic scale-up in construction.

Oracle, for its part, has secured a 15-year lease agreement, clearly signaling that the company is not betting on short-term hype but on long-term dominance in the AI-powered cloud computing space.

For traders, this story is not just a flashy headline, it is a clear call to action. Capital investments of this scale can significantly impact Oracle's stock dynamics, especially as chip deliveries begin and quarterly earnings are released. Any news related to the project is likely to be immediately reflected in the share price.

Moreover, the reallocation of computing power toward Oracle puts competitive pressure on Microsoft. This means not only a shift in market power but also a potential reshaping of demand patterns across the entire cloud services sector.

Those looking to turn this transformation into a trading opportunity should act early. Open an account with InstaForex, install our mobile app, and gain access to real-time analytics and tools designed to help you capitalize on the movement of tech giants' stocks.

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Аlena Ivannitskaya,
Analytical expert of InstaForex
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