Analysis of Tuesday's Trades

1H Chart of GBP/USD

On Tuesday, the GBP/USD pair also traded lower for the same reasons as the EUR/USD pair. First, after a conversation with Ursula von der Leyen, Donald Trump postponed the tariff hike for the EU to July 9. Second, the U.S. durable goods orders report showed a less disappointing result than expected. To be honest, the recent rise of the U.S. dollar might not have occurred at all— the market has ignored many dollar-supportive factors lately. However, corrections are necessary occasionally; in this case, the correction coincided with the news factor.

From a technical standpoint, the British pound remains above the trendline, so the uptrend is still intact. A rebound from this line may trigger a renewed rally of the British currency. Traders have had no issues buying the pair in recent months — the pound is being eagerly bought against the dollar even when there are no strong reasons for it.

5M Chart of GBP/USD

On the 5-minute timeframe, several trading signals formed on Tuesday, but their quality was lacking. Throughout the day, the price changed direction multiple times, especially near the 1.3537 level. All signals were generated around this level, so only the first two signals were potentially tradeable. The first did not result in a loss, as the price moved 20 pips in the correct direction. The second closed with a slight loss.

Trading Strategy for Wednesday:

On the hourly timeframe, GBP/USD only reacts to Donald Trump's actions and remains highly skeptical of his policies. While there are some signs of easing trade tensions, the market isn't showing any strong optimism. The dollar has strengthened slightly over the past few days, but this is merely a minor correction. A full-fledged dollar trend cannot be confirmed until the price breaks below the trendline.

On Wednesday, the pair may complete its current decline. The price is now very close to the trendline on the hourly chart, and there are no strong reasons to expect further dollar strengthening.

On the 5-minute TF, you can now trade at the levels of 1.2913, 1.2980-1.2993, 1.3043, 1.3102-1.3107, 1.3203-1.3211, 1.3259, 1.3329-1.3331, 1.3421-1.3443, 1.3537, 1.3580-1.3592, 1.3652-1.3660, 1.3695. No major economic events or reports are scheduled in the UK for Wednesday. In the U.S., the FOMC meeting minutes will be released — a fairly formal document. We do not expect any market reaction to this release.

Core Trading System Rules:

1. Signal Strength: The shorter the time it takes for a signal to form (a rebound or breakout), the stronger the signal.
2. False Signals: If two or more trades near a level result in false signals, subsequent signals from that level should be ignored.
3. Flat Markets: In flat conditions, pairs may generate many false signals or none at all. It's better to stop trading at the first signs of a flat market.
4. Trading Hours: Open trades between the start of the European session and the middle of the US session, then manually close all trades.
5. MACD Signals: On the hourly timeframe, trade MACD signals only during periods of good volatility and a clear trend confirmed by trendlines or trend channels.
6. Close Levels: If two levels are too close (5–20 pips apart), treat them as a support or resistance zone.
7. Stop Loss: Set a Stop Loss to breakeven after the price moves 20 pips in the desired direction.

Key Chart Elements:

Support and Resistance Levels: These are target levels for opening or closing positions and can also serve as points for placing Take Profit orders.

Red Lines: Channels or trendlines indicating the current trend and the preferred direction for trading.

MACD Indicator (14,22,3): A histogram and signal line used as a supplementary source of trading signals.

Important Events and Reports: Found in the economic calendar, these can heavily influence price movements. Exercise caution or exit the market during their release to avoid sharp reversals.

Forex trading beginners should remember that not every trade will be profitable. Developing a clear strategy and practicing proper money management are essential for long-term trading success.