Analysis of trades and trading tips for the euro.

The test of the 1.1639 price level occurred when the MACD indicator had already moved significantly below the zero line, which limited the euro's downward potential. For this reason, I did not sell. The second test of this price triggered Sell Scenario No. 2, resulting in a 12-point decline in the pair.

The external calm on global markets during today's European session masks underlying tension, as the news agenda is focused on only a few narrow but critically important triggers. Later, the main and virtually the only statistical event will be the release of the NAHB housing market data from the United States. In this regard, the primary focus shifts to statements by Donald Trump regarding the situation in the Middle East, as well as the progress of the G7 summit. Diplomatic negotiations and geopolitical statements by G7 leaders will likely create the conditions for sharp price fluctuations capable of completely overshadowing the significance of any economic data.

As for the intraday strategy, I will rely more heavily on the implementation of Scenarios No. 1 and No. 2.

Buy Signal

Scenario No. 1: Today, buying the euro is possible when the price reaches the 1.1643 level (green line on the chart), with a target of rising to 1.1671. At 1.1671, I plan to exit the market and also sell the euro in the opposite direction, expecting a movement of 30–35 points from the entry point. A rise in the euro today can only be expected after weak US data.Important: Before buying, make sure that the MACD indicator is above the zero line and just beginning to rise from it.

Scenario No. 2: I also plan to buy the euro today if there are two consecutive tests of the 1.1626 level while the MACD indicator is in the oversold zone. This will limit the pair's downward potential and lead to a reversal upward. Growth toward the opposite levels of 1.1643 and 1.1671 can then be expected.

Sell Signal

Scenario No. 1: I plan to sell the euro after the price reaches the 1.1626 level (red line on the chart). The target will be 1.1594, where I plan to exit the market and immediately buy in the opposite direction, expecting a movement of 20–25 points in the opposite direction from the level. Pressure on the pair will return today if strong US data is released.Important: Before selling, make sure that the MACD indicator is below the zero line and just beginning its decline from it.

Scenario No. 2: I also plan to sell the euro today if there are two consecutive tests of the 1.1643 level while the MACD indicator is in the overbought zone. This will limit the pair's upward potential and lead to a reversal downward. A decline toward the opposite levels of 1.1626 and 1.1594 can then be expected.

What's on the Chart

• Thin green line – entry price at which the trading instrument can be bought;
• Thick green line – the estimated level where Take Profit orders can be placed or profits can be manually secured, since further growth above this level is unlikely;
• Thin red line – entry price at which the trading instrument can be sold;
• Thick red line – the estimated level where Take Profit orders can be placed or profits can be manually secured, since further decline below this level is unlikely;
• MACD indicator – when entering the market, it is important to pay attention to overbought and oversold zones.

Important

Beginner Forex traders should make market entry decisions very carefully. Before major fundamental reports are released, it is best to stay out of the market to avoid sharp exchange rate fluctuations. If you decide to trade during news releases, always place stop-loss orders to minimize losses. Without stop-loss orders, you can lose your entire deposit very quickly, especially if you do not use proper money management and trade large volumes.

Remember that successful trading requires a clear trading plan, such as the one presented above. Spontaneous trading decisions based on the current market situation are inherently a losing strategy for an intraday trader.