Trade Breakdown and Trading Advice for the Euro

A price test of 1.1448 occurred at the moment when the MACD indicator was just beginning to move downward from the zero line, which confirmed a valid entry point for selling the euro. However, the pair did not continue to decline afterward.

It is clear that the absence of important eurozone statistics affected euro volatility. Uncertainty caused by data gaps and the lack of statements from European policymakers created a calm environment in the currency market. During today's U.S. trading session, despite the absence of fresh economic data from the United States, traders will focus on remarks from FOMC member Christopher Waller. His upcoming speech may provide key signals regarding the Federal Reserve's future actions, especially after recent decisions related to the reopening of the Strait of Hormuz.

Regarding intraday strategy, I will mainly rely on the execution of scenarios #1 and #2.

Buy Signal

Scenario #1: Today, euro purchases can be considered at a price around 1.1475 (green line on the chart), with a target of 1.1512. At 1.1512, I plan to exit the market and also consider selling in the opposite direction, aiming for a 30–35 point move from the entry point. Further euro growth is only possible in the case of a dovish Fed stance. Important! Before buying, make sure the MACD indicator is above the zero line and has just started rising from it.

Scenario #2: I will also consider buying the euro today if there are two consecutive tests of the 1.1448 level at a time when the MACD indicator is in oversold territory. This would limit downward potential and trigger a reversal to the upside. In this case, a rise toward the opposite levels of 1.1475 and 1.1512 can be expected.

Sell Signal

Scenario #1: I plan to sell the euro after reaching the 1.1448 level (red line on the chart). The target is 1.1411, where I plan to exit the market and immediately consider buying in the opposite direction (expecting a 20–25 point rebound). Downward pressure on the pair is unlikely to return today. Important! Before selling, make sure the MACD indicator is below the zero line and has just started moving downward from it.

Scenario #2: I will also consider selling the euro today if there are two consecutive tests of the 1.1475 level at a time when the MACD indicator is in overbought territory. This would limit upward potential and trigger a downward reversal. A decline toward the opposite levels of 1.1448 and 1.1411 can be expected.

What is shown on the chart:

• Thin green line – entry price for buying the trading instrument.
• Thick green line – expected take-profit level or area for manual profit-taking, as further upside beyond this level is unlikely.
• Thin red line – entry price for selling the trading instrument.
• Thick red line – expected take-profit level or area for manual profit-taking, as further downside beyond this level is unlikely.
• MACD indicator – when entering the market, traders should pay attention to overbought and oversold zones.

Important: Beginner Forex traders should be very cautious when making trading decisions. Before major fundamental news releases, it is best to stay out of the market to avoid sharp price fluctuations. If you decide to trade during news releases, always use stop-loss orders to minimize losses. Without stop-loss orders, you may quickly lose your entire deposit, especially if you do not use proper risk management and trade large volumes.

Remember that successful trading requires a clear trading plan, similar to the one presented above. Spontaneous trading decisions based on current market conditions are a fundamentally losing strategy for intraday traders.