Trade Analysis and Tips for Trading the Japanese Yen

The test of the 158.95 level occurred when the MACD indicator had just begun moving upward from the zero line, confirming a valid entry point for buying the dollar. As a result, the pair rose to the target level of 159.21.

At the moment, all attention is focused on negotiations between the United States and Iran. However, according to Pakistani diplomatic sources, there are currently no signs of the Iranian delegation's presence in Islamabad. The lack of confirmed information about the arrival—or even the scheduled arrival—of Iranian representatives creates uncertainty and raises concerns about the future course of the dialogue. Negotiations between the United States and the Islamic Republic are crucial for stabilizing both regional and global conditions, and even the slightest signs of a potential breakdown in talks are viewed with particular concern.

In addition, Kevin Warsh is expected to speak in the Senate later in the day. As the leading candidate for the position of Federal Reserve Chair, his statements will be closely analyzed. Any hints regarding future interest rate adjustments, quantitative easing or tightening programs, as well as his assessment of current economic challenges, could trigger increased volatility. Investors will look for confirmation or rejection of their expectations regarding the Fed's next steps. Given the overlap of these events, the second half of the day promises to be dynamic and potentially tense.

As for intraday strategy, I will mainly rely on implementing Scenarios No. 1 and No. 2.

Buy Signal

Scenario No. 1: I plan to buy USD/JPY today when the price reaches the entry point around 159.29 (green line on the chart), targeting a rise to 159.60 (thicker green line). Around 159.60, I plan to exit long positions and open short positions in the opposite direction (targeting a 30–35 point move). The pair may rise today if tensions between the US and Iran remain high.Important: Before buying, make sure the MACD indicator is above the zero line and just beginning to rise.

Scenario No. 2: I also plan to buy USD/JPY if there are two consecutive tests of the 159.14 level while the MACD indicator is in the oversold zone. This would limit the pair's downward potential and lead to an upward reversal. Growth toward 159.29 and 159.60 can be expected.

Sell Signal

Scenario No. 1: I plan to sell USD/JPY after a break below the 159.14 level (red line on the chart), which could trigger a sharp decline. The key target for sellers will be 158.87, where I plan to exit short positions and open long positions in the opposite direction (targeting a 20–25 point move). Pressure on the pair may return with weak US data and a dovish tone from Warsh in the Senate.Important: Before selling, make sure the MACD indicator is below the zero line and just beginning to decline.

Scenario No. 2: I also plan to sell USD/JPY if there are two consecutive tests of the 159.29 level while the MACD indicator is in the overbought zone. This would limit the pair's upward potential and lead to a downward reversal. A decline toward 159.14 and 158.87 can be expected.

Chart Notes

• Thin green line – entry price for buying
• Thick green line – estimated Take Profit level or area to lock in profits, as further growth above this level is unlikely
• Thin red line – entry price for selling
• Thick red line – estimated Take Profit level or area to lock in profits, as further decline below this level is unlikely
• MACD Indicator – when entering the market, it is important to consider overbought and oversold zones

Important: Beginner Forex traders should make market entry decisions with extreme caution. It is best to stay out of the market before major fundamental reports are released to avoid sharp price swings. If you choose to trade during news releases, always use stop-loss orders to minimize losses. Without stop-losses, you can quickly lose your entire deposit, especially if you do not use proper money management and trade large volumes.

And remember: successful trading requires a clear trading plan, like the one outlined above. Spontaneous decision-making based on current market conditions is a losing strategy for intraday traders.