Analysis of Trades and Trading Tips for the Euro

The test of the 1.1355 level occurred when the MACD indicator had already moved significantly below the zero line, which limited the pair's downward potential. The second test of 1.1355 triggered Buy Scenario No. 2, resulting in a 15-point rise in the pair.

The euro, having barely recovered from yesterday's fluctuations, came under pressure once again. Today's German GfK Consumer Climate Index data, which fell to its lowest level since the beginning of the year at -29.2 points, had a noticeable negative impact on the euro and limited the pair's upward potential during the first half of the day. The decline in the GfK index indicates that German households are becoming more cautious with their spending. This may be due to a range of factors, including concerns about inflation, slower economic growth across the eurozone, and ongoing geopolitical tensions.

Attention now shifts to the Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) Price Index, which serves as the Federal Reserve's primary measure of inflationary pressure. Its readings will play a significant role in shaping future monetary policy decisions. Data on changes in personal income and spending will also be critical for assessing consumer activity, which accounts for a substantial share of the U.S. economy. These reports are likely to determine the dollar's next direction against the euro.

As for my intraday strategy, I will primarily rely on the implementation of Scenarios No. 1 and No. 2.

Buy Signal

Scenario No. 1: Today, buying the euro is possible upon reaching the 1.1358 level (green line on the chart), with a target at 1.1402. At 1.1402, I plan to exit long positions and consider opening short positions in the opposite direction, targeting a 30–35 point move from the entry point. Further gains in the euro can only be expected if U.S. data comes in weaker than expected.

Important! Before buying, make sure that the MACD indicator is above the zero line and is just beginning to move higher.

Scenario No. 2: I also plan to buy the euro today if there are two consecutive tests of the 1.1329 level while the MACD indicator is in oversold territory. This would limit the pair's downward potential and trigger a bullish market reversal. In this case, growth toward the opposite levels of 1.1358 and 1.1402 can be expected.

Sell Signal

Scenario No. 1: I plan to sell the euro after the pair reaches the 1.1329 level (red line on the chart). The target will be 1.1291, where I intend to exit short positions and immediately consider buying in the opposite direction, targeting a 20–25 point rebound. Pressure on the pair is likely to persist today.

Important! Before selling, make sure that the MACD indicator is below the zero line and is just beginning to move lower.

Scenario No. 2: I also plan to sell the euro today if there are two consecutive tests of the 1.1358 level while the MACD indicator is in overbought territory. This would limit the pair's upward potential and trigger a bearish market reversal. In this case, a decline toward the opposite levels of 1.1329 and 1.1291 can be expected.

Chart Notes:

• Thin green line – the entry price at which the trading instrument can be bought;
• Thick green line – the estimated level where Take Profit orders may be placed or profits may be manually secured, as further growth above this level is unlikely;
• Thin red line – the entry price at which the trading instrument can be sold;
• Thick red line – the estimated level where Take Profit orders may be placed or profits may be manually secured, as further decline below this level is unlikely;
• MACD indicator – when entering the market, it is important to use overbought and oversold zones as guidance.

Important. Beginner Forex traders should exercise extreme caution when making market entry decisions. It is best to stay out of the market ahead of major fundamental reports to avoid exposure to sharp price swings. If you choose to trade during news releases, always use stop-loss orders to minimize potential losses. Without stop-loss orders, you can lose your entire deposit very quickly, especially if you trade large volumes without applying proper money management.

Remember that successful trading requires a clear trading plan, such as the one outlined above. Making spontaneous trading decisions based solely on the current market situation is inherently a losing strategy for an intraday trader.