Meanwhile, with the US dollar firmly leading against risk assets, finance ministers and central bank governors of the Group of Seven have gathered in Paris today for a meeting that risks entering history from its first hours — not so much for decisions taken as for the scale of problems for which there are still no solutions.
For the first time since the G7's founding, not only finance ministers and central bank chiefs but also energy ministers and representatives of the International Energy Agency assemble in the same room. This expanded format is a direct signal: the economic and energy crisis spawned by the US and Israel's war with Iran are so interdependent that dealing with them by separate ministries no longer makes sense.
Brazil, India, South Korea, and Kenya have been invited as guests, countries that represent a substantial share of global production, energy consumption, and critical minerals. Their presence sends an unambiguous message that Paris is being considered as a platform to build a broad coalition, not just for an internal Western dialogue.
Remarkably, the summit opens at a moment of acute tension: less than 24 hours before it, Trump posted on social media that "the clock is ticking" for Iran. Axios reports that on Tuesday, he will hold a Situation Room meeting to discuss military options. Against this backdrop, the divergence between Paris's diplomatic tone and Washington's bellicose rhetoric becomes one of the summit's main storylines.
The war with Iran and the Strait of Hormuz — the main theme French minister Lescure outlined the scale of the destruction on the eve of the summit: 30–40% of refining capacity in the Persian Gulf is damaged or destroyed, 17% of gas production capacity is out of service — its restoration will take about three years. This is not a supply crisis — it is a structural breakdown, the recovery from which is measured in years, not weeks.
German finance minister Lars Klingbeil said in Berlin that the G7 is the right forum to discuss resolving the war in Iran, which together with the blockade of Hormuz poses a serious threat to the global economy. "Our path as Europeans remains clear: we rely on cooperation, not confrontation," he said, stressing the need for European independence in raw materials, energy and supply chains.
Eurogroup President Pierrakakis was even more direct: "Reopening the Strait of Hormuz and ending the conflict are of primary importance for mitigating the economic fallout."
British finance minister Rachel Reeves also said over the weekend that she will "push for coordinated action to limit inflation and pressure on supply chains and to restore freedom of navigation through the Strait of Hormuz."
The American side takes a different position. US Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent, in a meeting with Lescure shortly before the summit, discussed critical minerals in the context of France's G7 presidency and directly asked Paris to lead EU efforts to pressure Iran to end the "destabilizing threat." The US views the war as an operation close to completion and expects political support from allies — but not mediation.
Global imbalances and trade tensions are also expected to be central items on the Paris agenda.
A separate thread is the outcome of the Beijing Trump–Xi summit held May 14–15, which ended with warm words but almost no concrete agreements. G7 ministers expect a more detailed account from the American side of what the leaders of the two largest economies did and did not agree on.
Meanwhile, markets continue to react. The yield on 30-year US Treasuries reached 5.121% — a near one-year high; 30-year UK gilts are around 5.8%, a level not seen since the late 1990s. Japanese government bonds are also under sustained pressure. A synchronous rise in yields across countries is a rare and worrying phenomenon. It signals that markets are pricing in the same scenario: inflation persisting, rate cuts postponed, and governments forced to borrow at high rates. This is an ideal backdrop for a stronger US dollar in the near term.
As for the current technical picture of EUR/USD, buyers now need to think about taking the 1.1640 level. Only that will allow them to target a test of 1.1675. From there, a climb to 1.1700 is possible, but doing so without support from major players will be quite difficult. The furthest target is the 1.1725 high. In case of a decline, I expect any serious action from large buyers only around 1.1610. If there is nobody there, it would be better to wait for a new low at 1.1600 or to open long positions from 1.1580.
Regarding the current technical picture of GBP/USD, pound buyers need to take the nearest resistance at 1.3340. Only then will they be able to target 1.3380, above which it will be fairly difficult to break through. The furthest target is the 1.3410 area. If the pair falls, bears will try to seize control of 1.3310. If they manage that, a breakout of the range will deal a serious blow to bulls and push GBP/USD to a minimum of 1.3280 with the prospect of moving toward 1.3250.
