The wave markup for GBP/USD has also shifted into a bullish, impulsive structure — "thanks" to Donald Trump. The wave picture is almost identical to that of EUR/USD. Until February 28, we observed a clear corrective structure that caused no concern. However, demand for the U.S. dollar then began to fall sharply, resulting in the formation of a five-wave bullish structure. Wave 2 took a single-wave form and is now complete. Accordingly, we should now expect further growth of the pound within wave 3 — a trend already in motion for three weeks.

Given that news from the UK had no real impact on the pound's recent strength, we can conclude that currency trends are dictated almost entirely by Donald Trump. If, theoretically, his trade policy shifts, the trend could shift too — this time to the downside. Therefore, in the coming months (or even years), close attention should be paid to every action from the White House.

The GBP/USD pair gained 30 basis points on Thursday — a move that should not have happened, objectively speaking. However, the day isn't over yet. In the morning, the UK published data similar to the Eurozone's but with contrasting results. While Q1 GDP rose more than expected (+0.7% QoQ), industrial production in March fell by 0.7% MoM (worse than the -0.5% forecast). As a result, the pound failed to gain significant ground, although recently demand for it has been growing on any pretext — so the loss is not major.

It's worth recalling the Fed's "hawkish" stance, the BoE's "dovish" tone, and the global cooling of trade wars. These factors should have helped the U.S. dollar gain significantly more ground in recent weeks than it has. Currently, wave markup and Donald Trump himself are working against the dollar. The market still hesitates to buy the U.S. currency, unsure of what to expect from the president. Just three months into his second term, Trump has already turned the world upside down. There's no guarantee that the remaining 90% of his presidency will be quiet and stable.

As a result, even when there are reasons to buy the dollar, it doesn't happen. On the one hand, this is good because Trump could abruptly reverse the trend, conflicting with current wave patterns. On the other hand, we're likely to once again encounter a situation where wave analysis contradicts the news backdrop. Market stability and predictable movements remain rare.

Conclusions

The wave structure of GBP/USD has transformed. We're now dealing with a bullish, impulsive leg of the trend. Unfortunately, under Donald Trump, markets may continue to face sharp reversals and volatility inconsistent with wave markup or technical analysis. The formation of upward wave 3 continues, with near-term targets at 1.3541 and 1.3714. For this reason, I continue to consider long positions, as the market shows no signs of reversing the trend again.

On a higher wave scale, the structure has also turned bullish. We may now be witnessing the start of a larger upward segment of the trend. Nearby targets are at 1.2782 and 1.2650.

Core Principles of My Analysis:

1. Wave structures must be simple and clear. Complex formations are harder to interpret and are often subject to change.
2. If you're unsure about market conditions, it's better to stay out.
3. There's never 100% certainty in market direction. Always use Stop-Loss orders.
4. Wave analysis can and should be combined with other forms of analysis and trading strategies.