After a slight rise, the EUR/USD pair once again failed to continue its upward movement. This time, the bulls were held back by the Federal Reserve meeting, renewed escalation in the Middle East, and a bearish imbalance (12). Yesterday, the price reacted to this pattern, the Fed's meeting results supported the bears, and new strikes on oil infrastructure in the Middle East may once again increase traders' appetite for safe-haven currencies and assets. It seems that everything is once again favoring the US dollar, as has been the case in recent months. However, in my opinion, the situation remains ambiguous. Geopolitics is a very complex factor that can stop providing support at any moment. Conflicts are constantly occurring around the world, but currency pairs are not driven by geopolitics most of the time. If we remove the factor of the war in Iran, I am almost certain that the current strengthening of the US dollar would not have occurred.
Yesterday, a new sell signal was formed which, given the break of the bullish trend, could push the euro significantly below the 1.1400 level. However, I can only believe in this scenario if geopolitics continues to strongly support the bears. As I have already mentioned, this would require not just a persistently tense situation in the Middle East, but further escalation. Oil prices would need to continue rising, more countries would need to become involved in the conflict, and the economies of developed nations would have to suffer significantly. The conflict itself would also need to drag on for many months. Previously, I said there were no clear prerequisites for such a scenario, but negative news continues to emerge from the Middle East, oil prices keep rising, and countries are beginning to tap into strategic oil and gas reserves. Therefore, a continued decline in EUR/USD is no longer an unlikely scenario.
At present, there are no new patterns for opening positions. Therefore, traders holding short positions should monitor market sentiment and reactions to events. If, for some reason, bears stop pushing the market lower despite favorable conditions, it would indicate that the influence of geopolitics is weakening. In that case, bulls may take the initiative, the bearish imbalance (12) would be invalidated, and I would consider the bullish trend to still be intact.
The chart structure still indicates bullish dominance. The bullish trend technically remains in place, but bulls are currently in a difficult position due to the rapidly changing news flow. To open new long positions, new bullish patterns are needed, or at least a liquidity sweep of the last two bearish swings. However, a liquidity sweep is not a standalone pattern and cannot be used as a direct trading signal.
On Thursday, the news background could have supported the bulls, as the European Central Bank also declared that it would keep interest rates unchanged and expressed serious concern about the potential rise in consumer prices—indeed, a highly likely rise. Since ECB rates are already at minimal levels and inflation may start rising again, the European regulator allows for the possibility of rate hikes in 2026. However, the euro ignored this bullish factor today. Bears maintain full dominance in the market.
There are still many reasons for bulls to act, and even the outbreak of war in the Middle East has not reduced them. Structurally and globally, Trump's policy—which led to a significant weakening of the dollar last year—has not changed. In the short term, the US dollar may strengthen due to investors fleeing risk, but this factor cannot support it indefinitely. There are no other strong supporting factors for the US currency.
I still do not believe in a sustained bearish trend. The dollar has received temporary support from the market, but it is unclear how long this situation will last. However, the bullish trend has been broken, and this must be acknowledged. There is still a chance of a liquidity sweep and a resumption of the trend, but geopolitics continues to weigh heavily on the EUR/USD pair.
News calendar for the US and the Eurozone:
- Germany – Producer Price Index (07:00 UTC)
On March 20, the economic calendar contains only one minor entry. The news background is unlikely to influence market sentiment on Friday.
EUR/USD forecast and trading advice:
In my view, the pair remains in the process of forming a bullish trend. The news background sharply shifted direction two weeks ago, but the trend cannot yet be considered fully canceled or completed. Therefore, traders need new patterns and signals to form short-term forecasts.
At the moment, bears may receive a signal from imbalance (12), and since the bullish trend is close to breaking, this signal should be taken seriously. Bulls, meanwhile, can only hope for a liquidity sweep below the lows of 1.1470 and 1.1392, invalidation of imbalance (12), followed by the formation of bullish patterns and new buy signals.
