Trade Review and Tips for Trading the Japanese Yen

The test of the 158.47 level occurred when the MACD indicator was just beginning to move upward from the zero line, confirming a correct entry point for buying the dollar. As a result, the pair rose by more than 30 points.

Since there is no new U.S. statistical data during today's American trading session, market participants' attention is naturally shifting to geopolitical developments—particularly the situation in the Middle East. Such uncertainty typically increases volatility in financial markets, with special focus on energy prices, especially oil. Given that Japan is highly dependent on the Middle East and energy prices, any escalation of the military conflict could weaken the yen and strengthen the U.S. dollar. Market participants should exercise maximum caution and be prepared for rapid changes in market conditions. Monitoring news, tracking geopolitical tensions, and adjusting trading strategies accordingly will be key tasks toward the end of the week.

As for the intraday strategy, I will mainly rely on the implementation of Scenarios No. 1 and No. 2.

Buy Signal

Scenario No. 1: I plan to buy USD/JPY today when the price reaches the entry point around 158.89 (green line on the chart), with a target of 159.29 (thicker green line on the chart). Around 159.29, I will exit long positions and open short positions in the opposite direction (targeting a 30–35 point move). Growth in the pair today can be expected if the military conflict escalates.Important: Before buying, make sure the MACD indicator is above the zero line and just beginning to rise.

Scenario No. 2: I also plan to buy USD/JPY if there are two consecutive tests of the 158.63 level while the MACD indicator is in the oversold zone. This will limit the pair's downward potential and lead to an upward reversal. A rise toward 158.89 and 159.29 can be expected.

Sell Signal

Scenario No. 1: I plan to sell USD/JPY after a breakout below the 158.63 level (red line on the chart), which may lead to a rapid decline. The key target for sellers will be 158.29, where I will exit short positions and immediately open long positions in the opposite direction (targeting a 20–25 point move). Pressure on the pair may return at any moment.Important: Before selling, make sure the MACD indicator is below the zero line and just beginning to decline.

Scenario No. 2: I also plan to sell USD/JPY if there are two consecutive tests of the 158.89 level while the MACD indicator is in the overbought zone. This will limit the pair's upward potential and lead to a downward reversal. A decline toward 158.63 and 158.29 can be expected.

What's on the Chart:

• Thin green line – entry price for buying the trading instrument
• Thick green line – suggested Take Profit level or area to lock in profits, as further growth above this level is unlikely
• Thin red line – entry price for selling the trading instrument
• Thick red line – suggested Take Profit level or area to lock in profits, as further decline below this level is unlikely
• MACD indicator – when entering the market, it is important to consider overbought and oversold zones

Important

Beginner Forex traders should make entry decisions very carefully. Before the release of major fundamental reports, it is best to stay out of the market to avoid sharp price fluctuations. If you decide to trade during news releases, always place stop-loss orders to minimize losses. Without stop-losses, you can quickly lose your entire deposit—especially if you do not use proper money management and trade large volumes.

Remember, successful trading requires a clear trading plan like the one outlined above. Spontaneous trading decisions based on current market conditions are a losing strategy for intraday traders.