The oil price is trading around $88.50. Since the opening of this week's trading session, it has been consolidating above $87. We saw a strong move that has pinned the price above the 200-day EMA.

However, oil has not been able to consolidate above this zone, and it will likely pull back and trade below $87.50.

If crude oil breaks below the 7/8 Murray level and consolidates below this area, it could be considered a signal to open short positions, and we could expect the price to fill the gap between Friday's close and Monday's opening around $81.

Conversely, if crude oil consolidates above $89.50 in the coming hours, this could be seen as a positive signal, and we could buy with targets at $96 and ultimately at the psychological level of $100 around the 8/8 Murray level.

The political backdrop of the war in the Middle East is the primary driver behind the price movement nowadays; therefore, we believe this situation is not yet over, and we expect the USD/OIL pair to continue rising in the coming days.

Given that crude oil is under downward pressure and still has to fill the gap, we could expect it to reach $81 or $75 before opening long positions with a target at $100.