Analysis of Trades and Trading Tips for the British Pound

The first test of the 1.3553 price level in the second half of the day occurred when the MACD indicator had already moved significantly below the zero mark, which limited the pair's downside potential. A short while later, another test of this level occurred, which led to the execution of Buy Scenario #2, resulting in only a 15-pip rise.

Today, retail sales data from the Confederation of British Industry (CBI) is expected. However, this figure is unlikely to impact the British pound seriously. However, it is important to note that the overall outlook for the pound remains quite positive. Inflation is showing signs of slowing, which puts pressure on the Bank of England to continue cutting interest rates. This could lead to accelerated economic growth in the short term, which would support the pound during a challenging time. Additionally, optimism surrounding possible progress in trade relations with the U.S. provides some positive sentiment among investors.

For intraday strategy, I will focus primarily on Scenarios #1 and #2.

Buy Scenario

Scenario #1: I plan to buy the pound today if the price reaches the 1.3573 entry point (green line on the chart), with a target of 1.3601 (thicker green line on the chart). Around 1.3601, I plan to exit long positions and open a short in the opposite direction (targeting a 30–35 pip move back from the level). A continued upward trend supports further pound appreciation.

Important! Before buying, ensure the MACD indicator is above the zero line and beginning to rise.

Scenario #2: I also plan to buy the pound today if there are two consecutive tests of the 1.3543 price level while the MACD is in oversold territory. This would limit the pair's downside and initiate a bullish reversal. A rise toward 1.3573 and 1.3601 may then follow.

Sell Scenario

Scenario #1: I plan to sell the pound today after a break below the 1.3543 level (red line on the chart), which would trigger a sharp decline in the pair. The key target for sellers will be 1.3512, where I plan to exit short positions and immediately enter long positions on the rebound (targeting a 20–25 pip move back from the level). Selling the pound can be considered after a failed attempt to break above the daily high.

Important! Before selling, ensure the MACD indicator is below the zero line and beginning to decline.

Scenario #2: I also plan to sell the pound today in the event of two consecutive tests of the 1.3573 level while the MACD is in overbought territory. This would cap the pair's upside potential and initiate a bearish reversal. A decline toward 1.3543 and 1.3512 can then be expected.

What's on the Chart:

• The thin green line represents the entry price where the trading instrument can be bought.
• The thick green line indicates the expected price level where a Take Profit order can be placed, or profits can be manually secured, as further price growth above this level is unlikely.
• The thin red line represents the entry price where the trading instrument can be sold.
• The thick red line indicates the expected price level where a Take Profit order can be placed, or profits can be manually secured, as further price decline below this level is unlikely.
• The MACD indicator should be used to assess overbought and oversold zones when entering the market.

Important Notes:

• Beginner Forex traders should exercise extreme caution when making market entry decisions. It is advisable to stay out of the market before the release of important fundamental reports to avoid exposure to sharp price fluctuations. If you choose to trade during news releases, always use stop-loss orders to minimize potential losses. Trading without stop-loss orders can quickly wipe out your entire deposit, especially if you neglect money management principles and trade with high volumes.
• Remember, successful trading requires a well-defined trading plan, similar to the one outlined above. Making impulsive trading decisions based on the current market situation is a losing strategy for intraday traders.