Trade Analysis and Recommendations for the Japanese Yen

The test of the 150.37 level occurred when the MACD indicator had already significantly moved below the zero line, which limited the pair's downward potential. For this reason, I did not sell the dollar.

Today, attention should be paid to the ISM Manufacturing Index and the University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index. Strong figures are likely to trigger another sell-off in the yen, as they would reinforce expectations of a more hawkish stance from the U.S. Federal Reserve. A rise in the ISM Manufacturing Index would indicate an expansion in industrial activity, signaling economic strength. Meanwhile, a high reading in the Consumer Sentiment Index reflects confidence in the economy and a willingness to spend, which stimulates growth and could prompt the Fed to maintain or tighten monetary policy.

However, the key driver of market movement today will be the U.S. nonfarm payroll (NFP) data for July and the unemployment rate. The strong June data exceeded economists' forecasts, causing a sharp rise in the USD/JPY pair. We'll see if a similar reaction follows today's release.

As for intraday strategy, I will primarily rely on the execution of Scenarios #1 and #2.

Buy Signal

Scenario #1: I plan to buy USD/JPY upon reaching the entry point at 150.61 (green line on the chart), targeting growth toward 151.45 (thicker green line on the chart). At 151.45, I plan to exit long positions and open short positions in the opposite direction, anticipating a 30–35 point pullback. A continued upward trend supports the possibility of further gains. Important! Before entering a buy trade, ensure the MACD indicator is above the zero line and just beginning to rise.

Scenario #2: I also plan to buy USD/JPY if the price tests the 150.24 level twice in a row while the MACD is in the oversold zone. This would limit the pair's downward potential and trigger a reversal to the upside. Growth toward 150.61 and 151.45 can then be expected.

Sell Signal

Scenario #1: I plan to sell USD/JPY after a break below the 150.24 level (red line on the chart), which may lead to a rapid decline in the pair. The key target for sellers will be 149.49, where I will exit short positions and consider buying in the opposite direction, aiming for a 20–25 point rebound. Pressure on the pair is likely to return if U.S. labor market data disappoints. Important! Before selling, make sure the MACD indicator is below the zero line and just beginning to decline.

Scenario #2: I also plan to sell USD/JPY if there are two consecutive tests of the 150.61 level while the MACD is in the overbought zone. This would limit the pair's upward potential and prompt a reversal downward. A decline toward the opposite levels of 150.24 and 149.49 can then be expected.

Chart Key:

• Thin green line – entry price for buying the trading instrument
• Thick green line – projected price level for placing Take Profit or manually securing profits, as further growth above this level is unlikely
• Thin red line – entry price for selling the trading instrument
• Thick red line – projected price level for placing Take Profit or manually securing profits, as further decline below this level is unlikely
• MACD Indicator – it is crucial to watch overbought and oversold zones when entering the market

Important Note: Beginner traders in the Forex market must make entry decisions with great caution. It is best to stay out of the market before the release of important fundamental data to avoid being caught in sharp price swings. If you choose to trade during news events, always place stop-loss orders to minimize potential losses. Trading without stop-losses can lead to the rapid loss of your entire deposit, especially if you do not apply money management and trade large volumes.

And remember, successful trading requires a well-defined trading plan, such as the one outlined above. Making spontaneous trading decisions based on the current market situation is an inherently losing strategy for intraday traders.