The EUR/USD pair continued its upward movement on Wednesday and reached the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement level (1.1824) based on a new Fibonacci grid. A rebound from this level would favor the US dollar and lead to some decline toward the 50.0% Fibonacci level (1.1745). A consolidation above 1.1824 would increase the likelihood of further growth in the euro toward the next retracement level of 76.4% (1.1923).

The wave structure on the hourly chart has become quite complex but is starting to clarify. Recent news about a two-week ceasefire between Iran and the United States supported the bulls, allowing them to form a new bullish wave. The overall picture now resembles the beginning of a new bullish trend. Over the weekend, geopolitics turned negative again as talks in Islamabad failed, but the ceasefire is still in effect, and negotiations may resume this week. This continues to support the bulls.

On Wednesday, European Central Bank President Christine Lagarde delivered a speech. She noted that before the war in Iran, the ECB had considered three possible scenarios for 2026, with the Eurozone moving along the most optimistic one. However, after the outbreak of the Middle East conflict, economic prospects worsened significantly. GDP forecasts for 2026 were revised down to 0.9% year-over-year, while inflation expectations were raised to 2.6% year-over-year. According to Lagarde, a high level of uncertainty remains, requiring constant revisions of economic forecasts. She also highlighted the importance of energy prices, calling them a key factor influencing major economic processes. Lagarde added that if the conflict in the Middle East continues, the economic situation will deteriorate further. Up to 20% of global oil and gas passes through the Strait of Hormuz. If the strait remains blocked, energy shortages will persist, preventing expectations of lower prices, slower inflation, and faster economic growth. Lagarde did not specify whether the ECB plans to tighten monetary policy at its upcoming meeting in response.

On the 4-hour chart, the pair consolidated above the 50.0% retracement level (1.1778), allowing traders to expect continued growth toward the next Fibonacci level of 38.2% (1.1849). A consolidation below 1.1778 would favor the US dollar and a potential decline toward 1.1706 and 1.1617. Bulls have managed to exit the descending trend channel, opening up additional opportunities. There are currently no emerging divergences.

Commitments of Traders (COT) Report:

During the last reporting week, professional traders opened 778 long positions and 8,826 short positions. Over seven weeks, the bulls' total advantage has disappeared. The total number of long positions held by speculators now stands at 201,000, while short positions total 208,000. Two months ago, bulls held more than a twofold advantage among non-commercial traders.

Overall, in the long term, major players still show strong interest in the euro. However, global events—of which there has been no shortage in recent years—continue to influence investor sentiment. At present, the market's focus remains on the Middle East, where the conflict shows no signs of ending. Thus, in the near term, the euro and dollar exchange rates will depend not on Federal Reserve or ECB monetary policy or economic data, but on the war in Iran. The dollar may once again benefit from this situation.

News Calendar for the US and the Eurozone:

• Eurozone – Consumer Price Index (09:00 UTC)
• US – Initial jobless claims (12:30 UTC)
• US – Industrial production change (13:15 UTC)

On April 16, the economic calendar includes three events that are not particularly significant. The impact of the news background on market sentiment on Thursday is expected to be very weak or absent.

EUR/USD Forecast and Trading Tips:

Selling the pair is possible today after a rebound from the 1.1824 level on the hourly chart, with a target of 1.1745. I previously recommended buying after a close above 1.1770 with a target of 1.1830, which has been reached. New buying opportunities may arise after a close above 1.1824, with a target of 1.1923.

Fibonacci retracement levels are drawn from 1.2082–1.1410 on the hourly chart and from 1.1474–1.2082 on the 4-hour chart.