Analysis of Trades and Tips for Trading the Japanese Yen

The price test at 161.78 occurred when the MACD indicator was just beginning to move upward from the zero mark, confirming a good entry point to buy the dollar. As a result, the pair only increased by 15 pips.

Yesterday, Japan's Minister of Finance, Shunichi Suzuki, held phone discussions with U.S. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent, briefly strengthening the yen, which is currently hovering near its lowest level in four decades. During the conversation, bilateral economic cooperation and the current situation in global financial markets were discussed. The weakening of the Japanese national currency was a particularly pressing issue. Bessent assured his Japanese counterpart that the U.S. is closely monitoring exchange rate dynamics and is ready to engage in dialogue to stabilize the situation.

Such statements, even if they are general, can have a short-term positive impact on the yen's exchange rate. However, fundamental factors, such as the interest rate differential between Japan and the U.S., as well as ongoing geopolitical instability, continue to weigh on the Japanese currency.

It is clear that the phone call between the ministers was another step in a series of consultations aimed at maintaining the yen's stability, but it has not yet led to serious currency interventions.

Regarding the intraday strategy, I will primarily implement scenarios No. 1 and No. 2.

Buy Scenarios

Scenario No. 1: I plan to buy USD/JPY today upon reaching an entry point around 161.78 (green line on the chart) with a target to rise to the level of 162.07 (thicker green line on the chart). Around 162.07, I plan to exit the long positions and open short positions in the opposite direction, targeting a move of 30-35 pips from the entry point. It is best to return to buying the pair during corrections and significant pullbacks in USD/JPY. Important! Before buying, ensure that the MACD indicator is above the zero mark and is just beginning to rise from it.

Scenario No. 2: I also plan to buy USD/JPY today in the event of two consecutive tests of the price at 161.62, with the MACD indicator in the oversold area. This will limit the pair's downward potential and lead to an upward market reversal. One can expect growth to the opposite levels of 161.78 and 162.07.

Sell Scenarios

Scenario No. 1: I plan to sell USD/JPY today only after the level of 161.62 (red line on the chart) is updated, which will lead to a quick decline in the pair. The key target for sellers will be 161.34, where I plan to exit the shorts and immediately buy back in the opposite direction, targeting a move of 20-25 pips in the opposite direction from the level. Sellers can return at any moment with just a hint from the central bank. Important! Before selling, ensure that the MACD indicator is below the zero mark and is just beginning to decline from it.

Scenario No. 2: I also plan to sell USD/JPY today in the event of two consecutive tests of the price at 161.78, with the MACD indicator in the overbought area. This will limit the pair's upward potential and lead to a downward market reversal. One can expect a decline to the opposite levels of 161.62 and 161.34.

What's on the Chart:

Thin green line – entry price for buying the trading instrument;

Thick green line – presumed price level for placing Take Profit or manually securing profits, as further growth above this level is unlikely;

Thin red line – entry price for selling the trading instrument;

Thick red line – presumed price level for placing Take Profit or manually securing profits, as further decline below this level is unlikely;

MACD Indicator. When entering the market, it is important to consider the overbought and oversold zones.

Important: Beginner traders in the Forex market must be very cautious when making entry decisions. Before major fundamental reports are released, it is best to stay out of the market to avoid being caught in sharp fluctuations. If you decide to trade during news releases, always set stop orders to minimize losses. Without setting stop orders, you can quickly lose your entire deposit, especially if you are not using money management and are trading large volumes.

And remember, for successful trading, you need a clear trading plan similar to the one presented above. Making spontaneous trading decisions based on the current market situation is inherently a losing strategy for intraday traders.