Trade analysis and tips for trading the euro

The test of the 1.1463 level occurred when the MACD indicator had just begun moving downward from the zero line, confirming a correct entry point for selling the euro. As a result, the pair declined by 20 points.

In the second half of the day, market participants will focus on a number of important economic data releases from the United States. Close attention should be paid to the weekly initial jobless claims report, which can shed light on the current state of the labor market. Recently, this indicator has been unstable, so weak data may put additional pressure on the dollar. At the same time, new home sales data will be released. This indicator reflects activity in the construction sector and consumer confidence, closely correlating with the overall health of the economy. An increase in sales will support the dollar.

However, it is clear that the overall direction for the euro will be determined by the European Central Bank's interest rate decision and comments from President Christine Lagarde.

As for the intraday strategy, I will rely mainly on the implementation of Scenarios No. 1 and No. 2.

Buy Signal

Scenario No. 1: Today, you can buy the euro when the price reaches around 1.1489 (green line on the chart), with a target of 1.1524. At 1.1524, I plan to exit the market and also sell in the opposite direction, expecting a move of 30–35 points from the entry level. You can expect euro growth after weak US data.Important! Before buying, make sure the MACD indicator is above the zero line and just beginning to rise from it.

Scenario No. 2: I also plan to buy the euro today if there are two consecutive tests of the 1.1452 level while the MACD indicator is in the oversold area. This will limit the pair's downward potential and lead to an upward reversal. Growth toward the opposite levels of 1.1489 and 1.1524 can be expected.

Sell Signal

Scenario No. 1: I plan to sell the euro after the price reaches 1.1452 (red line on the chart). The target will be 1.1409, where I plan to exit the market and immediately buy in the opposite direction (expecting a 20–25 point move in the opposite direction). Pressure on the pair may return at any moment.Important! Before selling, make sure the MACD indicator is below the zero line and just beginning to decline from it.

Scenario No. 2: I also plan to sell the euro today if there are two consecutive tests of the 1.1489 level while the MACD indicator is in the overbought area. This will limit the pair's upward potential and lead to a downward reversal. A decline toward the opposite levels of 1.1452 and 1.1409 can be expected.

What's on the chart:

• Thin green line – entry price for buying
• Thick green line – suggested Take Profit level or where profits can be locked in, as further growth above this level is unlikely
• Thin red line – entry price for selling
• Thick red line – suggested Take Profit level or where profits can be locked in, as further decline below this level is unlikely
• MACD indicator – when entering the market, pay attention to overbought and oversold zones

Important

Beginner Forex traders should make entry decisions very carefully. Before major fundamental reports are released, it is best to stay out of the market to avoid sharp price fluctuations. If you decide to trade during news releases, always use stop-loss orders to minimize losses. Without stop-loss orders, you can quickly lose your entire deposit, especially if you do not use proper money management and trade large volumes.

Remember, successful trading requires a clear trading plan like the one outlined above. Spontaneous trading decisions based on current market conditions are generally a losing strategy for intraday traders.