Trade Analysis and Tips for the Euro Currency

The price test at 1.1626 occurred when the MACD indicator had already moved significantly below the zero mark, limiting the pair's downward potential.

Against the backdrop of escalating tensions in the Middle East, the dollar is exhibiting strong growth. If the situation escalates into conflict, particularly with renewed American strikes against Iran, a more significant strengthening of the dollar against the euro can be expected. The increasing uncertainty and likelihood of further conflict development traditionally contribute to heightened demand for the dollar. The euro, in turn, may face pressure not only from external factors but also from the state of its own economy. If investment continues to flow into the dollar, the euro is likely to continue losing ground, which will be reflected in the weakening of the EUR/USD pair.

The first half of today is likely to be marked by macroeconomic news. Attention will focus on the release of Italy's trade balance data. These figures will provide insight into the current state of the Italian economy and its external trade activity, which may have a slight impact on the euro. Simultaneously, investors and analysts will be looking toward the G7 summit. The G7 meeting, especially amid current geopolitical conditions, could yield more significant market signals. Discussions on issues affecting global economic stability, energy security, or trade disputes could shape market expectations for a longer period.

Regarding the intraday strategy, I will rely more on implementing Scenarios #1 and #2.

Buying Scenarios

Scenario #1: I plan to buy euros today upon reaching the entry point around 1.1639 (green line on the chart) with a target for growth to the level of 1.1661. At the level of 1.1661, I plan to exit the market and also sell euros back in the opposite direction, anticipating a movement of 30-35 pips from the entry point. Growth in the euro can only be expected after strong eurozone data. Important! Before buying, ensure the MACD indicator is above the zero mark and just starting to rise from it.

Scenario #2: I also plan to buy euros today if there are two consecutive tests of 1.1618 while the MACD indicator is in the oversold area. This will limit the pair's downward potential and lead to an upward market reversal. An increase can be expected to the opposite levels of 1.1639 and 1.1661.

Selling Scenarios

Scenario #1: I plan to sell euros today after reaching 1.1618 (red line on the chart). The target will be 1.1594, where I intend to exit the market and immediately buy back in the opposite direction (anticipating a 20-25-pip move in the opposite direction from the level). Pressure on the pair may return at any moment today. Important! Before selling, ensure the MACD indicator is below the zero mark and just starting to decline from it.

Scenario #2: I also plan to sell euros today if there are two consecutive tests of the price at 1.1639 while the MACD indicator is in the overbought area. This will limit the pair's upward potential and lead to a market reversal downward. A decrease can be expected to the opposite levels of 1.1618 and 1.1594.

What is on the Chart:

• The thin green line – entry price at which the trading instrument can be bought;
• The thick green line – approximate price where take profit can be set or to realize profit, as further growth above this level is unlikely;
• The thin red line – entry price at which the trading instrument can be sold;
• The thick red line – approximate price where take profit can be set or to realize profit, as further decline below this level is unlikely;
• MACD indicator. When entering the market, it is important to be guided by overbought and oversold zones.

Important: Beginner traders in the Forex market need to make entry decisions very cautiously. It is best to stay out of the market before important fundamental reports to avoid sharp price fluctuations. If you decide to trade during news releases, always set stop orders to minimize losses. Without placing stop orders, you can quickly lose your entire deposit, especially if you do not use money management and trade in large volumes.

And remember, for successful trading, it is essential to have a clear trading plan, as outlined above. Making impulsive trading decisions based on the current market situation is fundamentally a losing strategy for an intraday trader.